Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: TN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Tennessee's nonmetro counties cool while trades heat up
Nonmetro Tennessee unemployment runs as high as 4.6% in Newport against a 3.4% statewide rate, even as skilled-trades wages climb 7-9% year over year amid a 76-of-100 scarcity reading.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Nonmetro unemployment range: 4.2%-4.6% — vs. 3.4% statewide (Athens, Greeneville, Newport)
- Statewide unemployment: 3.4% — Unchanged from July, down 0.1pt year over year
- Skilled-trades scarcity index: 76/100 — WIL Institute Observatory, Q2 2026
- National payroll growth: 29,000 — September, vs. 45,000 12-month average
Key takeaways
Nonmetro unemployment is running a full point above the state average.
Newport (4.6%), Athens (4.4%), and Greeneville (4.2%) all sit meaningfully above Tennessee's 3.4% statewide rate, indicating the state's labor-market tightness is a Nashville-and-urban-corridor story more than a rural one. Economic development messaging built on statewide figures risks mischaracterizing conditions on the ground in these counties.
Skilled trades are the one hot spot in an otherwise cooling nonmetro picture.
A constrained-trades index reading of 76/100 alongside 7-9% year-over-year wage growth in those occupations suggests real scarcity in construction and technical labor even as broader nonmetro hiring activity softens. Local CDL driver pay (metro median $79,300) running above the national median reinforces that specific trades are pulling away from the general wage trend.
Manufacturing's statewide contraction likely lands harder in nonmetro counties.
Tennessee manufacturing employment contracted slightly statewide even as the sector anchors many nonmetro county economies more heavily than it does Nashville or Memphis. Local manufacturing production worker pay sitting below the national median ($34,320 vs. $39,520) is consistent with softer demand pressure in these labor markets specifically.
National wage-inflation gap compounds an already uneven nonmetro recovery.
National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, meaning real purchasing power is eroding broadly — a headwind nonmetro counties are less equipped to absorb given thinner public and private payroll bases. Local consumer-facing wage figures (retail, food service, delivery) trending down this month add to that exposure.
Median advertised pay by role — TN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,000 | $27,040 | $29,778 | Moderate decline | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $22,061 | $25,336 | $26,815 | Moderate decline | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,467 | $35,166 | $37,348 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $56,127 | $79,300 | $90,000 | Moderate increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $26,431 | $31,656 | $34,278 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $30,444 | $36,953 | $41,574 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $54,600 | $66,736 | $70,720 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $30,291 | $34,320 | $36,944 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $30,101 | $35,360 | $37,358 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $26,520 | $29,110 | $30,531 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $32,193 | $34,521 | $37,440 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $30,280 | $36,273 | $39,520 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $58,141 | $63,657 | $65,000 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $78,137 | $93,429 | $101,706 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $103,197 | $135,446 | $146,077 | Moderate increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $85,663 | $118,965 | $125,302 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $51,368 | $66,882 | $75,375 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $67,930 | $78,602 | $88,681 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $54,810 | $76,160 | $99,065 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $44,384 | $65,000 | $72,787 | Significant increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager | $59,259 | $63,185 | $66,561 | Moderate increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $36,051 | $51,566 | $59,054 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $60,000 | $78,194 | $115,000 | Moderate increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $50,835 | $66,854 | $73,610 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $78,353 | $95,704 | $105,149 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $52,189 | Moderate increase | Moderate decline |
| Manufacturing | $66,483 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Retail Trade | $33,504 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $55,414 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $72,500 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $74,274 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $55,000 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $60,000 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $30,905 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $64,427 | Significant increase | Moderate decline |
Local market conditions
Tennessee's nonmetro micropolitan areas show unemployment running well above the statewide 3.4% rate, with Newport at 4.6%, Athens at 4.4%, and Greeneville at 4.2% as of the latest available county-level reads, pointing to a two-speed state economy where Nashville's tech and corporate expansion is not reaching rural and small-town labor markets. Manufacturing softness and skilled-trades scarcity — the latter registering 76 out of 100 on a regional constrained-trades index with wage growth of 7-9% year over year in those trades — suggest nonmetro labor supply is tightening unevenly, concentrated in construction and technical occupations even as broader nonmetro job growth lags the state's already-modest 0.9% projected 2026 pace.
What it means
Divergence between Nashville's expansion and nonmetro stagnation means commerce leaders and economic development officials should treat statewide Tennessee figures as poor proxies for nonmetro conditions when briefing local stakeholders or courting investment. Skilled-trades wage pressure amid overall nonmetro softness is consistent with a bifurcated local business climate — favorable for contractors and technical employers, harder for retail- and manufacturing-dependent local economies working through below-state unemployment readings. Local chambers and development corps should evaluate whether messaging to prospective employers distinguishes nonmetro county conditions from statewide or Nashville-driven headlines, which may overstate labor availability or wage stability in rural counties.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Whether county-level unemployment figures for nonmetro Tennessee update past the March 2026 readings currently available, since commerce leaders are currently operating on six-month-old county data layered against a fast-moving statewide and national picture.
Emerging pressure point: Continued skilled-trades wage acceleration (7-9% year over year) against flat-to-declining pay in retail, food service, and manufacturing roles could widen local income disparities within nonmetro counties and complicate workforce-development planning.
Potential inflection point: National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August; if that national cooling persists, nonmetro Tennessee counties with thinner economic bases may see it arrive with a lag but amplified effect.
Policy signal: Tariff and immigration-enforcement dynamics remain live, bare-fact considerations for nonmetro manufacturing and agriculture-adjacent employers; monitor official trade and labor-market data releases rather than anecdotal reporting for how these are landing locally.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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