Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: TN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — October 2026
Rural Tennessee hits 2.7% unemployment — but not everywhere.
Eight nonmetro Tennessee counties tied at 2.7% unemployment in September, even as Perry County sat at 5.1% and the statewide average held at 3.4% for a third straight month.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Lowest nonmetro county unemployment: 2.7% — Eight counties incl. Rutherford, Wilson, Dickson
- Highest nonmetro county unemployment: 5.1% — Perry County, state's highest rate
- Tennessee statewide unemployment: 3.4% — Third straight month; vs 4.2% US rate
- Tennessee avg. hourly wage: $25.79 — Up from $25.31 in August; vs $30.19 US avg
Key takeaways
Nonmetro Tennessee's tightness is real but not uniform.
Eight counties at 2.7% unemployment sit alongside three counties above 4.5%, a spread that complicates any single statewide narrative. Site-selection and workforce-development decisions calibrated to the state average risk missing meaningful county-level variation.
Wage gap with national figures persists despite job gains.
Tennessee's $25.79 average hourly wage remains roughly $4.40 below the national average of $30.19, even as the state added 28,400 nonfarm jobs over the year. That gap may continue to favor cost-conscious employer relocation into nonmetro counties, a relevant data point for economic development messaging.
TNTalent's $5 million bet signals where state priorities sit.
Federal funding directed at nuclear energy, AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing workforce training points to where state and local economic development incentives will likely concentrate next. Commerce leaders positioning regional pitches to employers may find alignment with these sectors improves access to state-level support.
Construction capacity looks flat.
Statewide construction employment showed roughly zero 12-month growth even as unemployment sits near record lows, consistent with a capacity ceiling. Any nonmetro county courting a manufacturing or infrastructure project should factor in limited specialty-trade labor supply as a planning constraint.
Median advertised pay by role — TN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $21,895 | $26,727 | $29,139 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $22,192 | $25,557 | $27,040 | Moderate decline | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,777 | $35,360 | $38,404 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,262 | $80,704 | $90,792 | Moderate increase | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $26,478 | $31,657 | $34,375 | Stable | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $30,750 | $37,440 | $41,600 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $54,214 | $65,520 | $70,720 | Significant increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $30,115 | $33,904 | $36,400 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $29,510 | $35,360 | $37,358 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $26,343 | $29,056 | $30,531 | Moderate decline | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $32,072 | $34,320 | $36,967 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,040 | $36,400 | $39,520 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $57,117 | $63,657 | $64,347 | Moderate decline | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $78,052 | $92,300 | $100,000 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $99,663 | $133,818 | $141,200 | Stable | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $81,910 | $118,965 | $123,500 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $50,000 | $65,657 | $74,037 | Moderate decline | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $68,355 | $78,585 | $89,096 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $55,000 | $76,160 | $90,065 | Significant increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $48,351 | $70,400 | $75,033 | Significant increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $63,541 | $77,928 | $84,043 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $35,438 | $51,566 | $59,477 | Significant increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $60,000 | $88,895 | $119,425 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $50,422 | $63,496 | $68,685 | Moderate decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $76,729 | $88,626 | $102,278 | Moderate decline | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $54,896 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $68,500 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $33,271 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $58,240 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Information | $72,500 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $55,331 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $56,333 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $60,320 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $30,946 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $62,814 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Rural and micropolitan Tennessee counties posted their lowest joblessness of the year in September, with eight counties — including Rutherford, Wilson, Dickson and Cheatham — tied at 2.7% unemployment while the statewide rate held at 3.4% for a third straight month. Geographic disparity remains the defining feature of this labor market: Perry, Hancock and Meigs counties posted rates between 4.6% and 5.1%, suggesting the nonmetro recovery is uneven and concentrated near Nashville's commuting ring.
What it means
Tight labor markets in counties bordering Nashville's metro core — several at 2.7% unemployment — signal limited available workforce capacity for any employer or public agency planning local expansion, while the 4-point spread to Perry County's 5.1% indicates meaningfully different conditions just a few counties away. Commerce and economic development leaders evaluating site location or expansion incentives should weigh county-level labor availability explicitly, treating nonmetro Tennessee as a set of distinct local labor pools; current conditions suggest reviewing county-by-county unemployment and wage data before finalizing any regional development or investment announcement.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: October county-level unemployment data, due with the usual three-week BLS lag, will show whether the spread between tight counties (2.7%) and lagging counties (above 4.5%) is narrowing or widening. A widening gap would argue for more targeted, county-specific economic development responses.
Worth watching: TNTalent program rollout details — including which nonmetro counties receive nuclear, AI infrastructure or advanced manufacturing training allocations — should clarify over the next 60 days. Local commerce and workforce boards positioning for these dollars will want early visibility into eligibility criteria.
Emerging pressure point: Statewide manufacturing employment slipped 1.7% over the year even as announced nonmetro investments (Sam Dong, Siemens Healthineers, ArtiCast Jackson) proceed. Watch whether these named project announcements convert to measurable local job counts or remain in the investment-announcement stage.
Potential inflection point: Wage-vs-inflation dynamics nationally show real wages essentially flat to negative; if Tennessee's wage growth trajectory ($25.31 to $25.79 month-over-month) slows alongside continued CPI pressure, nonmetro household purchasing power — and therefore local retail and consumer spending — bears watching into year-end.
Sources
- Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development — Eight Tennessee counties tied at 2.7% unemployment in September 2026
- Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development — Perry County recorded state's highest unemployment rate at 5.1%
- Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development — Tennessee statewide unemployment held at 3.4% for third consecutive month
- Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development — Tennessee average hourly wage of $25.79 vs national average $30.19
- Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development — TNTalent program launched with $5 million federal funding
- Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development — Construction employment showed roughly zero 12-month growth
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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