Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Rural Texas economy runs tight on workers, not demand.
Statewide, 1.2 unemployed workers exist per advertised vacancy and manufacturing wages are up 4.8% year-over-year, even as official nonmetro-specific data remains unpublished.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- County unemployment range: 1.2%–9.4% — Loving County vs Starr County, TX
- Statewide unemployed-per-vacancy ratio: 1.2 to 1 — 96,189 more unemployed than openings (TWC)
- Texas manufacturing wage growth: 4.8% — Strongest since Dec 2023, Dallas Fed
- Texas WARN notices YTD 2026: 91 filings / 14,592 workers — 45% fewer affected workers than 2025
Key takeaways
Nonmetro Texas lacks its own data, but county dispersion tells the story.
Unemployment spans from 1.2% in Loving County to 9.4% in Starr County, meaning any single 'nonmetro' figure masks real variation in local economic health. Commerce leaders should treat county-level Texas Workforce Commission figures, not statewide averages, as the credible local read.
Construction and manufacturing carry the state's rural growth story.
Texas construction grew 5.1% year-over-year, 2.1 points above the national pace, while manufacturing wages rose 4.8% — the strongest pace since December 2023. For nonmetro counties tied to energy infrastructure and ag-adjacent manufacturing, this suggests continued capital investment activity rather than a slowdown.
Labor supply, not demand, looks like the binding constraint.
Statewide, 1.2 unemployed workers exist for every advertised vacancy, and nearly half of manufacturers cite lack of available applicants as a hiring barrier. This points to a structurally tight labor pool in rural labor sheds that predates any single month's hiring numbers.
Wage gains in skilled trades appear to be outrunning inflation, for now.
Texas private wages rose 3.9% year-over-year against a national CPI pace near 3.4%, with manufacturing wages accelerating. That margin is narrow enough that a local cost-of-living uptick or national inflation reacceleration could erase it quickly.
Median advertised pay by role — TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $21,543 | $26,259 | $29,161 | Moderate decline | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $21,725 | $24,834 | $27,463 | Moderate decline | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $29,011 | $33,936 | $37,440 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,046 | $79,905 | $92,435 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $26,031 | $30,040 | $31,774 | Stable | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $28,607 | $33,809 | $37,440 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $57,603 | $71,345 | $75,847 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $30,080 | $33,597 | $37,440 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $31,200 | $37,148 | $39,520 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $25,764 | $28,153 | $30,514 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $30,387 | $34,320 | $38,480 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $29,730 | $38,403 | $42,640 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $59,280 | $70,563 | $76,000 | Significant increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $78,811 | $93,605 | $103,010 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $115,000 | $153,583 | $169,603 | Moderate increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $99,288 | $140,613 | $158,658 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $57,288 | $70,140 | $78,000 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $70,807 | $87,702 | $98,818 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $53,935 | $73,614 | $83,266 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $45,711 | $60,672 | $73,607 | Moderate increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager | $50,000 | $98,296 | $117,897 | Significant increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $39,580 | $55,317 | $61,008 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $64,250 | $97,500 | $120,144 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $48,368 | $70,237 | $81,507 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $78,600 | $95,637 | $108,198 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $71,963 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $99,545 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $40,560 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $62,439 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Information | $125,295 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $99,002 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $82,958 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $67,567 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $30,001 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $66,683 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Rural Texas labor markets are holding closer to the state's 4.0% rate than the national 4.2% reading, with county-level unemployment ranging from 1.2% in Loving County to 9.4% in Starr County, reflecting a dispersed, energy- and agriculture-influenced economy rather than a single metro trend. Statewide supply-demand conditions remain tight — 1.2 unemployed workers per advertised vacancy with 96,189 more unemployed than openings — while construction (up 5.1% year-over-year statewide) and manufacturing wage gains (up 4.8%) suggest nonmetro Texas is sharing in Texas's broader blue-collar momentum even as official metro-level data for this area remains unpublished by BLS.
What it means
Wide county-level dispersion in unemployment across nonmetro Texas means local economic conditions vary sharply even within a single workforce region, complicating any single read on business climate or expansion timing. Statewide wage growth of 3.9% year-over-year in sectors like manufacturing is outpacing the 3.4% national inflation rate, a signal that nonmetro employers competing for skilled trades labor are still absorbing real cost pressure even without official local wage data to confirm the pass-through. Commerce leaders should consider cross-referencing county-level Texas Workforce Commission data for their specific service area rather than relying on metro-wide averages when assessing local business investment conditions.
Looking ahead
Data gap to monitor: No dedicated BLS metro series exists for 'TX Nonmetropolitan Area,' so commerce leaders and economists should track county-level Texas Workforce Commission releases and the 26-county Panhandle Workforce Development Area report as the closest available regional proxy.
Early indicator: Panhandle-region unemployment rose from 3.2% to 3.5% in May with a 1,298-worker employment decline — worth watching whether this pattern spreads to other nonmetro workforce development areas or remains isolated.
Worth watching: Texas WARN notices total just 91 statewide in 2026, concentrated in transportation/logistics and manufacturing; a rise in nonmetro-adjacent filings would be a leading signal of softening in rural supply chains tied to those sectors.
Potential inflection point: Dallas Fed's upward revision of 2026 Texas job growth to 2.0% from 1.1%, driven by data center and AI-related activity, raises the question of whether rural counties capture any of that investment or remain bystanders to urban-corridor growth.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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