Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — October 2026
Nonmetro Texas pay splits sharply along trades versus retail lines.
Electrician and HVAC technician pay rose significantly in nonmetro Texas this month while retail and food service pay declined, against a backdrop of Texas labor force growth stalling at just 3,600 net participants statewide over the past year.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Texas unemployment rate: 4.4% — vs 4.1% national, up from 4.1% year ago
- Texas 12-month labor force growth: 3,600 net participants — Stalled despite 154,300 jobs added statewide
- Texas annual wage growth: 4.5% — vs 3.1% national (Dallas Fed, August 2026)
- Texas WARN notices YTD: 17,285 workers — Down 35% from 2025, signals resilience
Key takeaways
Skilled trades pay signals a tightening local capacity constraint.
Electrician and HVAC technician advertised pay both rose significantly this month, mirroring the statewide pattern of manufacturing and energy-linked construction demand outpacing available skilled labor. For economic development officials, this points to trades training capacity as a binding constraint on how fast new projects can staff up locally.
Retail and food service wage softness tracks a cooling consumer segment.
Retail sales associate, retail cashier, and food service worker pay all moved down this month against stable national medians, a gap that suggests local consumer-facing demand is softer than the broader state and national picture. Commerce leaders watching foot traffic and retail investment should treat this as an early-read indicator.
Nursing and operations pay gains point to institutional demand.
Registered nurse pay rose significantly alongside operations manager and account manager categories, consistent with national healthcare hiring strength and Texas's broader services expansion. This pattern typically reflects durable institutional demand (hospitals, logistics, services firms) that persists beyond a short-term seasonal spike.
Labor force stagnation is the structural story beneath the headline numbers.
Texas added only 3,600 net labor force participants over the past year even as the state led the nation in job growth, a gap that constrains how much nonmetro employers can scale without wage competition. Government economists should watch whether labor force participation stabilizes or continues to lag job creation, since that gap is what ultimately caps regional output.
Median advertised pay by role — TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $20,761 | $25,024 | $27,743 | Significant decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $21,840 | $24,960 | $27,560 | Moderate decline | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $29,120 | $34,423 | $38,221 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $59,481 | $80,600 | $92,000 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $25,813 | $29,561 | $30,936 | Stable | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $28,712 | $34,320 | $38,073 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $57,760 | $70,853 | $77,840 | Significant increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $30,153 | $34,211 | $38,156 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $31,200 | $37,062 | $39,520 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $25,245 | $28,163 | $30,513 | Moderate decline | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $30,404 | $34,531 | $38,821 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $29,878 | $38,403 | $42,684 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $58,294 | $70,730 | $76,000 | Significant increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $78,991 | $94,082 | $103,069 | Significant increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $115,401 | $153,924 | $170,000 | Stable | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $99,179 | $138,261 | $157,546 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $56,906 | $67,876 | $75,631 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $69,781 | $85,800 | $97,692 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $53,743 | $70,937 | $81,786 | Moderate increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $44,864 | $59,474 | $72,569 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager | $50,000 | $96,551 | $110,347 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $38,397 | $54,515 | $60,650 | Moderate increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $65,000 | $97,919 | $121,875 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $48,368 | $70,873 | $85,260 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $77,502 | $94,089 | $106,791 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $70,000 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $100,609 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $35,453 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $63,378 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Information | $125,137 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $90,220 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $81,620 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $68,000 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $30,001 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $63,179 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Nonmetropolitan Texas counties continue to absorb the state's broader labor force stall, with Texas adding just 3,600 net participants statewide over the past year even as manufacturing, energy, and AI-related construction activity concentrate hiring demand in rural and small-town economies. Metro advertised pay data shows a split economy taking shape locally: skilled trades (electricians up significantly, HVAC technicians up significantly) and professional roles (operations manager, account manager, registered nurse all up significantly) are pulling ahead, while retail, food service, and manufacturing production pay are moving down, a divergence consistent with Texas's 4.4% unemployment rate and slowing 0.8% year-to-date job growth.
What it means
Wage divergence between skilled trades/professional roles and frontline retail and production work signals where local economic capacity is actually expanding versus where consumer-facing sectors are softening, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing and for economic development officials targeting incentives. The pattern is consistent with statewide labor force stagnation pushing wages up fastest where skills are scarce, while softer consumer demand pressures retail and food service pay downward. Local chambers and development corporations may want to evaluate whether workforce pipeline investment aligns with the trades and healthcare categories showing sustained wage strength over sectors where advertised pay is declining.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Texas labor force growth has nearly stalled (15,800 added in September, just 3,600 over twelve months); watch whether nonmetro counties see any reversal as this directly caps how fast local employers and public services can expand.
Worth watching: Dallas Fed's October manufacturing employment index fell to 11.6 from 15.1, a deceleration signal worth tracking given manufacturing's role as the strongest nonmetro wage driver this year.
Potential inflection point: Texas WARN filings are down 35% year over year statewide, a sign of labor market resilience; any uptick in nonmetro filings over the next two months would mark a meaningful reversal worth flagging to local officials.
Policy factor to monitor: Reduced immigrant labor supply is reported to be boosting demand for temporary and contract workers statewide; nonmetro agriculture- and construction-dependent counties are likely to feel this first, and the facts here warrant tracking without attaching policy judgment.
Sources
- Dallas Fed / Texas Workforce Commission — Texas labor force added only 3,600 net participants over past year
- Texas Workforce Commission — Texas unemployment rate at 4.4% in September 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — Texas wage growth 4.5% year-over-year vs 3.1% national
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — Dallas Fed manufacturing employment index fell to 11.6 from 15.1
- Texas Workforce Commission WARN tracker — Texas WARN notices down 35% from 2025, totaling 17,285 workers
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — Reduced immigrant labor supply boosting demand for temporary workers
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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