Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: WI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Rural Wisconsin's workforce shrinks faster than its job count.
Wisconsin labor force participation fell to 64.5% from 65.4% a year ago, even as warehouse and delivery pay in this metro trend down while registered nurse pay rises to a $106,145 median.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- WI labor force participation: 64.5% — Down from 65.4% a year ago
- Wisconsin unemployment rate: 2.7% — vs 4.1% US rate, Sept 2026
- WI wage growth forecast 2026: 3.7%-4.2% — vs 3.9% WI core inflation
- WI WARN notices, 2026 YTD: 56 notices / 3,914 workers — Down 7% from 2025
Key takeaways
Participation decline may matter more than the jobless rate.
Wisconsin's labor force participation rate fell to 64.5% from 65.4% a year ago even as unemployment stayed low, a gap consistent with population aging and outmigration in non-metro counties rather than a healthy tight market. For economic development planning, available worker supply looks tighter than the headline rate suggests.
Goods-movement sectors show the clearest local softening.
Warehouse/fulfillment, delivery driver, and construction laborer advertised pay are all trending down locally while holding stable nationally, mirroring the statewide contraction in Trade, Transportation and Utilities. This divergence from national patterns is a useful local gauge of freight and logistics demand heading into year-end.
Health care and skilled trades are the metro's growth engines.
Registered nurse pay is up significantly locally ($106,145 median) alongside strong gains for electricians and HVAC technicians, consistent with the statewide pattern of Education & Health Services driving job growth while manufacturing and trade soften. These sectors look like the more resilient pillars of the local economy right now, not the broader basket.
Wage-vs-inflation math remains tight, not favorable.
Wisconsin's forecast 2026 wage growth of roughly 3.7-4.2% sits close to the state's 3.9% core inflation rate, meaning real purchasing power gains are marginal at best. Consumer spending capacity locally is unlikely to meaningfully accelerate even where nominal wages are rising.
Median advertised pay by role — WI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,009 | $28,221 | $32,302 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $23,682 | $28,723 | $31,142 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,620 | $37,210 | $40,560 | Moderate decline | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $56,160 | $76,498 | $85,726 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $27,511 | $32,375 | $34,628 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $32,534 | $40,138 | $43,680 | Moderate decline | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $62,022 | $73,788 | $81,952 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $33,238 | $38,551 | $41,600 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $32,240 | $37,683 | $42,120 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $28,176 | $30,455 | $33,887 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $37,334 | $47,320 | $52,520 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $34,348 | $40,559 | $43,680 | Moderate decline | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $59,042 | $67,202 | $69,627 | Moderate increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $88,042 | $106,145 | $115,101 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $92,691 | $124,375 | $132,230 | Moderate increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $85,769 | $118,965 | $128,823 | Moderate decline | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $55,615 | $67,500 | $75,234 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $63,836 | $77,544 | $83,929 | Moderate increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $53,827 | $66,663 | $74,128 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $48,552 | $60,513 | $71,228 | Significant increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $70,157 | $82,250 | $88,005 | Moderate increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $31,460 | $41,036 | $49,920 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $57,500 | $85,790 | $107,292 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $41,352 | $75,110 | $84,529 | Moderate increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $72,359 | $87,536 | $99,778 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $55,349 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Manufacturing | $59,393 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $38,568 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $45,240 | Moderate decline | Stable |
| Information | $90,000 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $53,549 | Moderate decline | Moderate increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $56,607 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $71,800 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $32,240 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Government | $65,720 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Rural Wisconsin's labor market is tightening against a shrinking labor base rather than booming demand: statewide labor force participation has slipped to 64.5% from 65.4% a year ago, a pattern consistent with outmigration and aging demographics in non-metro counties even as unemployment stays historically low. Advertised pay for warehouse, delivery, construction labor and administrative roles in this metro is softening or flat even as electricians, HVAC technicians and registered nurses post significant gains, a divergence consistent with the statewide split between contracting goods-movement sectors and expanding health and skilled-trades segments.
What it means
Softening demand signals in logistics and administrative roles alongside strength in healthcare and skilled trades suggests this metro's business climate favors targeted local investment over broad-based expansion, particularly for employers tied to trade, transportation and warehousing. Declining labor force participation compounds the picture: available workers may be scarcer than the unemployment rate implies, a relevant constraint for commerce leaders weighing site selection or expansion timing. Current conditions suggest monitoring participation trends alongside posted-wage data before drawing conclusions from the headline unemployment rate alone.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Watch whether statewide labor force participation continues declining into Q4 2026; a further drop would reinforce that non-metro worker availability, not demand, is the binding constraint on local business activity.
Worth watching: Wisconsin WARN filings for 2026 are down 7% year-over-year with manufacturing historically dominant; a reversal in manufacturing-linked filings in rural counties would be an early signal of goods-sector stress reaching this metro.
Emerging pressure point: National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation; if this gap persists and reaches Wisconsin's non-metro wage data, local consumer spending capacity -- a key input for retail and commerce planning -- could weaken further.
Potential inflection point: National job postings turned positive year-over-year for the first time in nearly four years; whether that momentum reaches rural Wisconsin's trade and logistics sectors, where local pay has been softening, is worth tracking for signs of a turn.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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