Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: WI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — October 2026
Nonmetro Wisconsin's county economies are pulling apart.
County unemployment ranges from 2.5% in Lafayette to 5.8% in Menominee, while statewide manufacturing employment is forecast to run 1.3% below October 2025 levels.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- County unemployment spread: 2.5% – 5.8% — Lafayette County vs. Menominee County, Aug. 2026
- State unemployment rate: 3.2% — Unchanged month-over-month, Sept. 2026
- Manufacturing employment forecast: -1.3% — Projected Oct. 2026 vs. Oct. 2025, statewide
- Real wage growth, Wisconsin: -5.1% — Steepest decline of any US state, YoY Sept. 2026
Key takeaways
Nonmetro Wisconsin is several distinct economies.
A 3.3-point spread between Lafayette County's 2.5% unemployment and Menominee County's 5.8% shows rural labor conditions vary as much within the nonmetro category as across the state. Economic development planning anchored to a single statewide or regional figure risks missing where real stress or strength actually sits.
Manufacturing softness threatens a sector nonmetro Wisconsin depends on.
Wood products manufacturing concentrates heavily in nonmetro counties, and statewide manufacturing employment is forecast 1.3% below October 2025 levels, continuing a trend that has left Wisconsin 4% below pre-pandemic manufacturing payrolls. For nonmetro tax bases and supply-chain businesses tied to these plants, this is a slower-moving but consequential signal than the statewide unemployment number suggests.
Construction's strength is a rare counterweight worth tracking.
Wisconsin's construction sector stands out as notably strong even as manufacturing lags, and metro-level advertised pay data shows Construction Laborer wages holding steady at $41,600 and Electrician pay up moderately to $74,932. That combination points to building-trades demand as one of the few sectors adding ballast to nonmetro labor conditions this quarter.
Real wage erosion is sharper in Wisconsin than nationally.
Wisconsin recorded the steepest year-over-year real wage decline of any state at -5.1%, even as its median wage nominally hit a record high. For nonmetro commerce leaders, this implies consumer purchasing power may be softening faster locally than state or national headlines suggest, with direct implications for retail and hospitality revenue expectations.
Median advertised pay by role — WI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $21,540 | $27,750 | $31,964 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $23,882 | $29,120 | $31,200 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,756 | $37,000 | $40,372 | Moderate decline | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $56,569 | $76,535 | $85,156 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $27,434 | $31,979 | $34,840 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $34,320 | $41,600 | $45,457 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $62,022 | $74,932 | $83,200 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $33,994 | $38,847 | $41,600 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $33,280 | $37,968 | $42,640 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $28,176 | $32,240 | $34,500 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $37,742 | $47,320 | $53,268 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $34,668 | $41,000 | $44,237 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $58,314 | $67,600 | $72,725 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $88,000 | $106,080 | $115,440 | Significant increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $91,354 | $121,121 | $129,870 | Stable | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $89,377 | $118,965 | $128,842 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $55,613 | $67,880 | $76,000 | Moderate increase | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $64,991 | $79,169 | $84,694 | Moderate increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $53,273 | $66,024 | $73,557 | Stable | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $50,656 | $62,500 | $75,904 | Significant increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $70,000 | $85,176 | $88,005 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $31,200 | $39,520 | $48,059 | Stable | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $60,000 | $90,901 | $110,000 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $66,387 | $80,000 | $85,223 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $72,662 | $89,438 | $99,972 | Significant increase | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $55,712 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $60,457 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $37,683 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $43,061 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Information | $90,000 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $53,040 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $56,160 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $70,720 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,595 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Government | $63,516 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Nonmetropolitan Wisconsin's labor market shows a wide structural split: county unemployment ranges from 2.5% in Lafayette County to 5.8% in Menominee County, well outside the state's steady 3.2% rate, reflecting how rural and wood-products-dependent economies diverge from the state's urban centers. Statewide job growth has essentially stalled since 2020 (1.5% cumulative versus 4.3% nationally), and forecasts point to manufacturing employment running 1.3% below year-ago levels by October, a sector that remains concentrated in nonmetro counties and carries outsized weight for rural tax bases and main-street spending.
What it means
County-level divergence (Menominee's 4.7% employment growth against Marathon County's 1,116 job losses) signals that any single nonmetro-area headline obscures real variation commerce leaders should track at the county level before drawing conclusions about regional business conditions. Construction strength paired with manufacturing softness suggests capital projects and building trades remain a bright spot even as wood-products and other manufacturing employers face headwinds tied to the sector's broader national pullback. Consider evaluating county-level employment and wage trends separately from statewide averages when assessing local investment climate or public-sector revenue projections.
Looking ahead
Expected release: BLS publishes October state and metro employment data November 20, with Wisconsin DWD's nonmetro county-level breakdowns following in late November or early December. That lag means this month's county-level read (Menominee, Lafayette, Marathon) is still August data; treat current figures as a baseline that will need confirmation once more recent data arrives.
Emerging pressure point: Manufacturing employment forecast to run 1.3% below year-ago levels by October bears watching closely in wood-products-heavy nonmetro counties, where a single plant's trajectory can move a county's entire unemployment rate.
Worth watching: Marathon County's reported loss of 1,116 jobs stands out against Menominee County's 4.7% employment growth in the same period. Whether this divergence widens or narrows in the next data release will clarify whether nonmetro Wisconsin is splitting into distinct growth and contraction zones.
Policy signal: Wisconsin's unionization rate fell from 14% to 7.5% between 2011 and 2025, the fastest decline among neighboring states. Bare fact, presented without advocacy: this trend intersects with wage-setting dynamics in manufacturing-heavy nonmetro counties and is worth tracking alongside wage data as context, since cause and effect remain unclear on its own.
Sources
- USA Facts/BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics — County unemployment range from 2.5% (Lafayette) to 5.8% (Menominee)
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Wisconsin job growth 1.5% since Feb 2020 vs. 4.3% nationally
- Bureau of Labor Statistics / Wisconsin DWD — Menominee County 4.7% employment growth vs. Marathon County 1,116 job losses
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Wisconsin manufacturing 4% below pre-pandemic employment levels
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Wisconsin steepest real wage decline of any state at -5.1% YoY
- High Road Strategy Center — Wisconsin unionization rate fell from 14% to 7.5%, 2011-2025
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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